Don’t panic: Northbound funds flow into private equity bosses shouting bullets
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There have been 32 drops in A shares more than today, and a large inflow of northbound funds. The private equity boss shouted the bullets to illuminate the original Wu Shun. The A share market opened on February 3.
Under the hedging sentiment, the Shanghai Composite Index once fell by more than 8% and closed down by 7.
History is a mirror.
In the history of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the average of the declines has exceeded 32 times today; overseas markets also have precedents affected by the epidemic, but eventually out of the long bull market.
The market fell sharply, but the northward capital went against the trend to increase positions.
Private equity boss Dan Bin even bluntly said: “The bullets are gone!”
A single day’s plunge is not uncommon in the history of A shares that have fallen more than 天津夜网 today.
Data source of the historical decline of the Shanghai Stock Index: Oriental Fortune chose to take the performance of A shares during the SARS epidemic in 2003 as an example. At that time, the SARS epidemic concentrated in late 2002 and was basically controlled in 2003.
Although the outbreak had a short-term impact on A shares, it was still determined by the laws of the capital market itself in the long run.
Guojin Securities recalled that during the SARS epidemic in 2003 (early period), A shares continued to have “spring agitation”, but when the SARS epidemic entered a severe period (mid-April to mid-May), due to panic (the periodThe price of gold has risen rapidly), A-shares have been adjusted for nearly a month (after the A-shares reached a stage high on April 17, 2003, the index was adjusted downwards to May 13,北京夜生活网 and the adjustment range was within 10%).
As the epidemic eased, A shares continued to rebound.
At the same time, during the SARS period, A-shares staged a “five golden flowers” market. Pharmaceutical stocks achieved periodical excess returns during the severe period of the epidemic, and some consumer industries performed poorly.
From the Spring Festival in 2003 (February) to the end of May, the industries with the highest increase rates were automobiles, public utilities, steel, transportation, machinery and equipment, which corresponded to China’s investment-driven economic growth model at the time.
This shows that the impact of the epidemic on the market is short-lived and basically follows the operating laws of the market and the economy.
What needs to be done now is to find the “five golden flowers” of the moment.
What will happen in the overseas market?
There are also many cases of overseas markets affected by the epidemic.
For example, H1N1 avian influenza occurred in the United States in 2009, and the “Zika” outbreak occurred in Brazil in 2016.
The 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak in the United States also seemed very serious at that time-but after 2009, the main stock index of the US stock market staged a ten-year long bull.
During the outbreak of the Zika virus in Brazil after 2016, there were even rumors at that time that the 2016 Rio Olympics in Brazil would be replaced or cancelled.
Facts have shown that the outbreak of the “Zika” virus has also had a very limited impact on the local capital market. The Brazilian BOVESPA index has continued its bullish trend since 2016.-Northbound fund dips, private placement “light bullets”, although slightly adjusted, have always been good at”Foreign countries are rushing to raise money.
On February 3, there was a substantial net inflow of 181 northbound funds.
91 trillion, this inflow is second only to 214 on November 26, 2019.
3 billion, the second highest in history in a single day.
It ‘s completely foreign, but private equity boss Dan Bin said on Weibo this morning: “Give instructions to traders, new funds to buy leading liquor, leading battery companies, leading Internet companies (Hong Kong stocks), leading online education companies (Hong Kong stocks), bulletsEmpty!
Hu Bo, a private equity fund manager, pointed out that today is the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, and each index has opened lower, which is a dual reflection of the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on the macroeconomic and public panic psychology, and during the holiday periodThe drop of the outer plate A50 is close.
There are no major changes in the three fundamentals of the bull market: policy, economic fundamentals, and funding.
Neither foreign exit risk nor liquidity risk occurred.
So don’t panic, the current opportunity is a good opportunity to increase your position.
Looking for high-quality assets that have been killed by panic by mistake, evading industries damaged by the epidemic, and looking forward to the deterministic market after the epidemic gradually subsides.
The effect of the economic stimulus policy is expected to be reflected after the second quarter. This year, the broader market follows GDP, showing a trend of low to high.
The possibility of a new high for the index is not ruled out.
Guojin Securities pointed out that combined with the predictions of the latest epidemic developments proposed by relevant authoritative experts, the current point in time can be similarly analogous to mid-late April 2003.
Short-term A shares will be more affected by the risk aversion and pressure.
When the subsequent epidemic situation has substantially eased (the inflection point appears), it is the time when A shares start to rebound.At the current moment, the epidemic has briefly disturbed the “spring agitation” market of A shares and will not change the existing trend and market style of A shares.
Medium- and long-term trends in A-shares still determine monetary policy.
During the epidemic, the downward pressure on the domestic economy was relatively infiltration, and monetary policy will maintain a loose liquidity environment during the epidemic.